Tag Archives: football

February 4, 2012

Sal’s Super Bowl Lowdown

By nalstradamus

I was going to try my hand in a fancy full analysis of the game, but there are tons of those out there. If you want to read a good breakdown of the game, the latest issue of Sportsnet Magazine has a great one. Instead I’m going to predict the entire game. Not every play, but every big play and scoring play. If I get more than 15% right I’m quitting my job on Monday. Where applicable I’ll also comment on how my predictions match up with the juicy prop bets. Let’s do this thing!

Pregame

The ever so exciting coin toss is the first action us degenerates will be betting on. My bet is the result will be tails and the Giants win the toss and elect to receive. Former American Idol winner Kelly Clarkson will be performing the national anthem. There are some ridiculous prop bets on her performance alone. I’m going to say she has her hair up, shows her belly, misses at least 1 word and sings the anthem in 1 min and 40 seconds.Here is the summary of my picks.

+300 if she wears this outfit

Tails: -105

Giants win toss: -105

Clarkson hair up: +300

Clarkson showing her belly: +300

Clarkson misses at least one word: +250

Anthem over 94 seconds: -120

1st Quarter

After winning the toss the Giants start on their 20 after an adrenaline fueled kickoff goes out of the end zone for a touchback. The Giants try to establish the run in their first possession and have some success with Ahmad Bradshaw carving up the Pats D for a few nice gains. The Giants cross the 50 in their first possession and get into field goal range with the use of some playaction passes to Victor Cruz. However, the first drive comes to a halt when the Pats D tightens and forces the Giants into a 38 yard field goal…which is good for a 3-0 lead. Abby Manning gets her first TV spot during this first drive as well and she looks nervous. The Giants kick off to the Pats and a nice return gives the Pats decent field position at their 30 yard line. The Pats eager to fight back come out firing with Tom Brady hitting on his first 4 passes. The Pats cross the 50 in their first possession and look poised to at least tie the game. However, a big sack by Jason Pierre-Paul knocks the Pats out of field goal range and forces a punt. The punt is fair caught at the 10 and the Giants have their 2nd crack at the Pats D. This time around the Pats D is ready for the power run game and stuff the Giants on the first 2 downs. The 3rd down passing play is incomplete and the Giants’ punt gives the Pats excellent field position near the 50. During the 2nd Pats possession, Gisele and Tom Brady’s son make their first appearance on TV. Shockingly the son is not wearing a Brady jersey, but instead is wearing a designer pea coat and driver’s cap. In their 2nd possession the Pats quickly get into the red zone and finish off the drive with a Brady to Hernandez TD off of play action. Extra point is good bringing the score to 7-3 Pats. On the Giants’ 3rd drive, Eli begins to air it out and hits Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham on several occasions bringing the Giants into Pats territory again. Brandon Jacobs makes his first appearance and gives a few bruising runs to run out the 1st quarter of play.

Who needs Gisele?

Related prop bets:

Opening kickoff is a touchback: -190

Giants cross 50 yard line first: -165

Will Eli throw a 1st quarter TD pass: no, -170

Total Sacks Jason Pierre-Paul: over 1/2 -210

Will Tom Brady throw a 1st quarter TD pass: yes, +130

Tom Brady’s first pass will be: complete, -200

Aaron Hernandez scoring first TD for Pats: 4/1

Giants score first: -125

Giants score or punt first: score,+105

First score of game is field goal: +150

First score of game is Giants field goal: +350

Field goal in 1st quarter: -125

First to appear on TV Abby Manning or Gisele: Abby Manning -120

Gisele on TV: over 1/2, -250

Brady’s son not wearing a Brady jersey: +130

2nd Quarter

I can do more than dance

The Giants continue their drive into the redone of the Pats. This time they are able to punch it in with a Hakeem Nicks goal-line fade route. Extra point is good making it a 10-7 game. The Pats next possession Brady marches the troops up the field with pin point passes to Wes Welker and Deion Branch. Ron Gronkowski remains reception-less at this point. Brady tries to get his big TE into the game by forcing a pass into double coverage which is picked off by Kenny Phillips. The Giants take over with outstanding field position. After a couple mediocre runs by Bradshaw the Giants are faced with 3rd and long near midfield. Eli returns the favour by trying to force his 3rd down pass into Victor Cruz and it’s picked off by Patrick Chung. The Pats take over near midfield. An unlikely player makes an impact on this drive as Ochocinco hauls in a huge catch on a deep post route bringing the Pats deep into Giants territory. After 2 failed attempts in the end zone to Gronkowski the Pats decide to lean on sure handed Wes Welker to punch it into the end zone to push the Pats back out in front 14-10. The teams go on to trade meaningless drives to end the half as both defences tighten and the score at the half is 14-10 Pats.

Related prop bets:

Eli Manning interceptions: over 1/2, -200

Eli Manning throws a TD before a Pick: -250

Hakeem Nicks scoring a TD: -115

Kenny Phillips INT: +400

Tom Brady interceptions: over 1/2, -165

Wes Welker scoring a TD: +105

Ochocinco receptions: over 1/2, -165

Player to get 1st interception: Kenny Phillips, 10/1

Hakeem Nicks scoring first TD for Giants: 7/2

Pats score last in 1st half: -115

Will both teams have lead in 1st half: yes, -105

Pats win 1st half by 4-6 points: 6/1

Halftime

Madonna is the halftime entertainment this year and she blows the audience away singing Like a Prayer, Vogue, Hung Up and ending off with Like a Virgin. No nudity is shown.

No nudity...but maybe some profanity?

3rd Quarter

The Pats get the ball first in the 2nd half. The Giants front four gets after Brady in this first drive sacking him twice, Justin Tuck and Pierre-Paul doing the damage. The Pats are forced to punt and Giants start with great field position. The Giants continue to pound the rock with Bradshaw and Jacobs. With the Pats bringing the safeties up to help with the run, Manning is able to hit Manningham on a go route for a monster gain inside the Pats 20. Bradshaw caps off the drive with a 6 yard scamper to push the Giants back in front 17-14. On the Pats next possession it is more of the same for the Giants front four who continue to get to Brady. The Pats yet again forced to punt. The Giants now full of confidence continue to move the ball by mixing up the run and pass play calls. Victor Cruz who has been relatively quiet so far is the star of this drive as he takes a relatively innocent looking quick slant route into a 35 yard touchdown play. The Giants build their lead to 24-14. The Pats on their next possession appear to have made adjustments up front and use Gronkowski as more of a blocker than route runner. This adjustment seems to kickstart Brady who is able to find targets with his new-found pocket time. Welker scores his 2nd TD of the game on a short crossing route to bring the score to 24-21 Giants. This sets up a nail-biting 4th quarter.

Wes Welker

4th Quarter

The Giants look to answer early in the 4th quarter, but are unable to score any points in their first 4th quarter possession and are forced to punt. The Pats with the momentum behind them continue to terrorize the Giants secondary with short, quick routes. Brady brings the Pats back into the red zone and the drive is capped off by the Law Firm muscling in for a short TD run. 28-24 Pats early in the 4th. The Giants with their 2nd possession of the 4th quarter start to make adjustments of their own and start to move the ball again. However, the drive is stymied by a 3rd down drop by Victor Cruz. The Giants are yet again forced to punt. The Pats take over with seven minutes and change left to go. The Pats begin to lean more on Woodhead and the Law Firm to eat some clock. A seemingly tired Giants D begins to get shoved around and the Pats running game eats up precious clock. With 3 minutes to go the Pats are over the 50 and are looking poised to score yet again…and then the fumble heard around the world occurs. The Pats having success with the Law Firm for most of the drive decide to get fancy and run the ball with TE Hernandez on a sweep. Jason Pierre-Paul who to this point was having a beast of a game is able to punch the ball out of Hernandez’s grasp and is also able to pounce on the ball for the turnover. With 2 and half minutes left and 2 time outs remaining Eli and the Giants have the chance to break the Pats hearts yet again. Not wanting to give Brady another chance with the ball, the Giants do not abandon the run. Bradshaw eclipses the 100 yard mark on this drive and at the 2 minute warning the Giants are just shy of midfield. After the 2 minute warning the Giants continue with the run game and continue to move the ball. After a play action pass to Victor Cruz the Giants are on the Pats 30 yard line with just over a minute remaining. Continuing with the hurry up offence against a tired Pats offence, Eli continues his hot play with another completion to Victor Cruz to get the Giants into the red zone. With 40 seconds remaining the Giants call a time out. After the time out the Giants go 4 wide and cross up the Pats with a draw play to Bradshaw. The play brings the Giants to the Pats 7 yard line. The Giants decide to forego their last time out and on the next play Eli hits Nicks in the back of the end zone to give the Giants the lead 31-28 with only 12 seconds remaining. The Pats are unable to pull off a miracle and Giants pull off the upset…again. Coughlin is showered with blue Gatorade and Hakeem Nicks is named Superbowl MVP and thanks God for the victory.

Related prop bets:

Colour of Gatorade dumped on coach: blue, +800

Hakeem Nicks MVP: +1200

MVP thanking God first: 4/1

Bradshaw score a TD: +110

Cruz score a TD: Even

Law firm score a TD: +120

 

Wow, typing this has got me so pumped for tomorrow. I have $50 on the Giants at +120 to win the game so here’s hoping at least I have that prediction right :)

Enjoy the game everyone!

 

 

 

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January 14, 2012

NFL Divisional Weekend: Not so easy to call

By nalstradamus

Last week’s game weren’t all that close or exciting…well except you know who’s game. My picks from last week went 4-0, including my zany upset pick of Denver. I have this feeling we may see another upset or two this week as well. Let’s go game by game and see what we’ve got.

New Orleans at San Francisco

Can Alex Smith Upset the Saints?

The Saints did what they do best last week against the Lions and that’s put a ton of points on the board. This week they head into San Fran and face a much stiffer defence. In fact San Fran finished the season as the #1 ranked defence in terms of Total Defense (YPG). San Fran’s specialty is run stoppage, ranking #1 in the league against the run. However, that means very little when it comes to the Saints who prefer to move the ball through the air and San Fran’s d was just average against the pass this year (#16). These two teams did not face each other this year and the last meeting was in 2010 in San Fran with the Saints squeaking out a 3 point victory.

Keys of the game:

Can the 49ers win the time of possession game? One sure fire way of stopping Drew Brees is by keeping him off the field. The best way to do that is by running the ball. San Fran had the 8th best rushing attack in the league this year and will need a monster game by Frank Gore to have a shot in this one. The Saints d isn’t the most stout in the league, but they’re also not a pushover by any means. Of course all bets are off here if New Orleans gets up double digits early as this will force the 49ers into a track meet which is definitely not their strength.

Can Drew Brees be stopped? From what we’ve seen this season it’s tough to see anyone stop Brees and his aerial attack. A possible equalizer could be the elements, if the conditions get ugly and wet it could slow down the Saints and force this game into a running battle. Scary proposition that mother nature may be the only one who can stop Drew Brees.

Pick: Saints

As I said last week I think the Saints are going to the Super Bowl. The Saints defence is underrated and Brees and co. are just unstoppable right now. The line for this game is Saints -3.5. I would probably lay off this game because I think they’ve got the line pretty good on this one. If I was going to bet I’d tease the 49ers to +9.5.

Denver at New England

The Mastermind

I’m not even going to get into what happened in Denver last week. It would take an entire blog post on it’s own to talk about it. All I know is…I’M RIDING THE TEBOW TRAIN AGAIN this week. These 2 teams met earlier this year with the Pats winning 41-23. That score is a little deceiving as Denver was definitely holding their own in that game until they got the turnover itch. Ok people, this is a david vs. Goliath mismatch on paper…except on the defensive side of the ball where the Pats are horrendous.

Keys of the game:

Can Denver keep the turnovers down? This is what killed the Broncos the last time these teams met. The Broncos cannot afford to give Tom Brady extra chances and premium field position.

Which New England defence shows up? The Pats defence has been awful this season, but Bill Belichick is a mastermind at making something out of nothing. The Pats saw what Tebow was able to do against a stacked 8 man box. Will they employ a more traditional defence dropping more into coverage rather than being concerned about plugging the running lanes?

Can Denver stop the two headed tight end monster? Gronkowski and Hernandez are a nightmare for any defensive coordinator. If you double one, the other one will ruin you. They both are big and both have speed. The biggest mismatch on the field every game.

Pick: Broncos

Again not going to be a popular pick this week, but if the Broncos can keep the turnovers down I think their defence is strong enough to keep this close enough for some Tebow magic (or flukes, depending on which side of the hate you’re on) to occur. The line for this game is New England -13.5, if I’m picking the Broncos to win outright then I’d obviously be taking the Broncos +13.5.

Houston at Baltimore

Ray Rice and Ray Lewis

These two teams met earlier this year with Baltimore winning easily 29-14 at home. This game features two of the strongest defences in the league and two of the elite running backs in the game. The Ravens are big favourites in this game coming in as 9 point faves (at Pinnacle anyway). The Ravens must have breathed a huge sigh of relief after seeing their arch rival Steelers lose last week. The Steelers have been their main roadblock in the playoffs the last few years. With the Steelers out of the way, the pressure is on Joe Flacco and co. even more now to be the AFC champs.

Keys of the game:

Will Joe Flacco finally have a big playoff game? The player with the most pressure on him is without a doubt Joe Flacco. As mentioned above, this is his shot now to show he is in the top tier of QB’s. It won’t be easy though going against the 2nd ranked defence in the league.

Ravens D vs. Arian Foster: This in my opinion is the key to this game. If Arian Foster can’t breakthrough and have a big game the Texans are in big trouble. With no running game the Texans play action specialty will have no effect and the Ravens D could feast on Taylor Yates

Pick: Ravens

The Ravens are an up and down team, but one thing that has stayed consistent all year for them is their play at home. I think we see more from Ray Rice then we do from Joe Flacco and I think in the end the Ravens D wins the game on a turnover. I think this line is a bit inflated and if I were to bet this game I’d take the Texans +9.

New York at Green Bay

End of the championship reign?

These two teams met last month with the Packers eeking out a 3 point victory in New York. This in my opinion is the game of the week. The Giants look capable of being world beaters right now with their defence clicking and their offence on fire. However, winning against the Pack at Lambeau is never easy and they will have to find a way to stop Aaron Rodgers…a feat not many have been successful at.

Keys of the game:

Aaron Rodgers…this is pretty much it right here. The Pack will give up points, but can the Giants do anything to stop Aaron Rodgers? The Giants will need a huge game from their front 4 to put enough pressure on Rodgers to give their iffy secondary any shot.

Can the Pack stop the Giants running game? The Giants have been a running wrecking crew in their last 3 games averaging 131 yards per game while the Packers have struggled against the run in their last 3 allowing an average of 137 yards per game. If the Giants can get the running game going it will not only open up the dangerous passing game, but it will also eat up clock and keep Rodgers on the sidelines.

Pick: Giants

I think the Giants are peaking at just the right time. The Packers defence is not the defence we saw last year. The pass rush has disappeared and the secondary is porous. I think the Giants D does just enough to squeeze out the upset.

 

This week has been the hardest week to pick this year especially from a gambling perspective. Vegas has been getting rolled and I think that is why you see some of the public teams having overinflated lines. I think the best bet on the board is the 49ers, but even then I’m not so sure. Anyway, enjoy the games and good luck if you are laying down the cash.

 

 

 

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January 7, 2012

Wild Card Weekend: Too Easy to Call?

By nalstradamus

Wildcard weekend kicks off today with the Bengals at the Texans and the Lions at the Saints. On Sunday the Falcons are at the Giants and the Steelers are in Denver. Lets break each of these games down.

Bengals at Texans

AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

These two teams met in week 14 with the Texans squeaking out a 20-19 win in Cincy. The Bengals led that game 16-3 heading into the 2nd half, but the Texans D tightened up and allowed the comeback to occur. Both of these teams definitely have not been the hottest teams in the NFL. The Texans have lost 3 straight with their last win coming against Cincy and the Bengals haven’t beat a playoff team all year. What these 2 teams do have are elite defences. Houston has the #2 overall ranked defence while the Bengals have the #7 overall ranked defence.

Keys of the Game:

Can the Bengals stop the Texans rushing attack? The Texans have the best rushing offence in the league led by Arian Foster and super sub Ben Tate. The Bengals have overall been stout against the run giving up a measly 3.9 yard per carry; however, in their last 3 games they’ve struggled allowing an awful 5.1 yards per carry. If the Bengals struggle against the run they will likely commit 8 to the box and will be highly susceptible to play action which bodes trouble as Andre Johnson should be back in the line up for the Texans. However, if they can plug up the running lanes they could feast on inexperienced signal caller Taylor Yates.

Can Houston solve their case of fumble-itis? In their last 4 games the Texans have fumbled the ball a staggering 9 times. The Texans cannot continue this trend against one of the most opportunistic defences in the league.

The battle of the rookie QB’s. This will come down to which QB can make the least number of mistakes. With 2 elite defences battling it out this game could be a game of field position and field goal kicking. Both QB’s do not want to gift field position to the other with costly picks and fumbles. Seems simple, but the team that wins the turnover game wins this game.

Jason Miller, Getty Images

Pick: Texans

Home field advantage is one thing, but it’s the running game of Arian Foster and Ben Tate that give the Texans the big edge. If I were betting against the spread I’d still take Houston -3 (the line is now -4 so I’m obviously not alone).

Lions at Saints

These two teams also met earlier this season with the Saints winning easily at home 31-17 in week 13. As expected both teams put up gaudy offensive numbers; however, the Lions shot themselves repeatedly in the foot taking 11 penalties for a total of 107 yards. The Saints are the overwhelming favourite to win this game as Vegas has them listed as 10.5 point favourites. This point spread differential has been earned by the Saints as they have been $$$ at home this year going 8-0 against the spread.

Ndamukong Suh might not be enough to stop Drew Brees

Keys of the Game:

Can the Lions do anything to stop or slow down Drew Brees? If last weeks performance against back-up Matt Flynn (480 yards, 6 TD) is any indication then the Lions are in big trouble. Having Ndamukong Suh for this rematch is a bonus for the Lions, but they’ll need a lot more then that if they have any hope.

Can either of these defences make a stop? These definitely are not elite defences with the Lions having the 23rd ranked defence and the Saints having the 24th ranked defence. However, the Saints defence has been playing well of late allowing 17.7 points per game and 325.7 yards of total offence in their last 3 games. Compare that to the Lions defence that has allowed 27.3 points per game and 464.7 yards of total offence in their last 3 outings.

Drew Brees (Danny Bourque/The Times-Picayune)

Pick: Saints

The Saints are my pick to win the NFC and I don’t see the Lions stopping the offensive juggernaut in this one. I would shy away from the -10.5 for the Saints if I were betting, but I’d gladly tease that down to -4.5 and suck on some juice.

Falcons at Giants

These 2 teams have not met since Nov. 2009. The Giants had to win 2 must win games to close out the season to make the playoffs while the Falcons have been a Jekyll and Hyde type of team all year long. The Falcons record may be a little deceiving as in their last 10 games they went an outstanding 7-3; however, only one of those 7 wins came against a playoff team and all 3 losses were against playoff bound teams. The Giants defence was ravaged with injuries this year causing them finish the year as the 27th ranked defence in the league. However, the Giants defence appears to be fully healthy, especially their vaunted front 4 and in their last 3 games they’ve given up just 17 points per game, 310.3 yards of total offence and a ridiculously low 3.4 yards per carry.

Justin Tuck will hope to see a lot of Matt Ryan on his back

Keys of the Game:

Can the Falcons stop a hot Eli Manning? The Falcons have been very stout against the run this year, but their secondary has struggled all year against the pass. One big reason for their struggles is a complete absence of a pass rush from their front 4. If the Falcons do not find a way to put pressure on Eli he will pick them apart with his talented WR arsenal.

Can the Giants stop the Falcons ground game? The Falcons are a clock management type of team, they like to hold onto the ball and grind the other team out. They have a bruiser in Michael Turner leading the attack behind a mean and tough offensive line. The play action is what makes their passing game excel. The Giants struggled against the run all year long giving up an average of 121.2 yards per game. However, as stated earlier they appear to have tightened up the run defence in the last few weeks.

Michael Turner (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

Pick: Giants

If this game was in Atlanta I may be more inclined to go with the Falcons. The Falcons are not a good road team and they haven’t shown that they can be a solid team when playing in the elements. The Giants seem to be coming together at just the right time and if their front 4 can stay healthy throughout the playoffs we could see them surprise some teams just like they did in 2007.

Steelers at Denver
I’ve now been kicked off the computer by the wife so the rest of this post will be done on the iPhone (thus it will end quickly). These two teams have not met this season, the last matchup was in Nov 2009. The Broncos limped into the playoffs losing 3 straight, while the Steelers just missed out on the AFC North title.

Tebow Time?

Keys of the Game:

Can Tebow move the ball against the Steelers? Tebow has been awful in his last 3 games with QB ratings of 53.3, 25.2 and 34.4. It doesn’t get any easier against the always tough Steeler D. Tebow will also need to reduce the turnover problems he’s had in recent weeks if the Broncos have any shot.

Is Big Ben healthy enough to win? It’ll be tougher on Ben this week with starting RB Rashard Mendenhall out for the season. Big Ben has struggled in his last two games and is obviously hampered by lingering injuries.

Pick: Broncos

I’m definitely in the minority with this pick, but I feel if there was going to be an upset this week this would be the best game for one to happen. The Steelers have been so so on the road this year and haven’t been blowing out lesser teams on the road. If the Broncos can keep it close they might be able to win an ugly game. If I were betting I’d gladly take the Broncos at +9.

Enjoy the games!

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January 1, 2012

Sal’s Week 17 NFL Picks: The Hangover Edition

By nalstradamus

Last Week: 5-9

Season: 111-117-9

 

I probably should have wrote this yesterday to avoid trying to concentrate with a brutal headache and a tongue that feels like a towel. I need a big week this week to finish at or above .500 for the year. Week 17 is probably the 2nd toughest week to pick winners next to week 1. Some teams will be playing back-ups to rest stars for the playoffs and other teams maybe playing more rookies and fringe players to see what they have moving forward for next year. Good luck everybody and enjoy your hangovers.

Washington at Philly -9

Pick: Eagles -9, too little too late for the Eagles in a season where many big things were expected. The Eagles have won 3 straight and it looks like their maligned defence has started to click. I don’t love this pick, but gun to my head I pick the Eagles.

NYJ at Miami -3

Pick: Jets +3, this is a must win game for the Jets who need a whole bunch of things to fall their way in order to make the playoffs. This might also be the last shot for Sanchez to prove to the Jets brass that he should be the main man moving forward.

Carolina at New Orleans -7

Pick: Saints -7, the Saints still have something to play for and they need a win over the Panthers to get the 2nd seed in the NFC. The Saints are undefeated at home and undefeated ATS at home. That’s good enough for me.

Detroit -6.5 at Green Bay

Pick: Lions -6.5, the Packers are likely to rest most of their stars in this one. Tough to call though because Detroit will likely not want to show Green Bay too much as they may face each other again fairly soon in the playoffs.

San Francisco -12 at St. Louis

Pick: 49ers -12, the 49ers control their destiny for the 2nd seed in the NFC. With a win they get the bye. What worries me about this pick is that the 49ers get off to a huge lead and start resting starters for the playoffs allowing the Rams to get the backdoor cover.

Indy at Jacksonville -3

Pick: Colts +3, Indy’s covered their last 4 games including their last 2 games on the road. The public is on the Colts as this line was -5.

Buffalo at New England -10

Pick: Patriots -10, if the Pats win they clinch home field throughout the playoffs. It looks like Tom Brady will play in this game. This is also a revenge spot as the Pats look to avenge a September 25 loss in Buffalo.

Tennessee -1 at Houston

Pick: Titans -1, the Titans still have still have an outside shot at the playoffs, but that all won’t matter if they lose against Houston. The Texans have nothing to play for and are a banged up squad. They will likely rest their starters in this one.

Chicago at Minny -1.5

Pick: Bears +1.5, both teams playing for pride this week. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 match ups against the Vikes…although the favourite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 match ups. Basically what I’m saying here is this is a pure guess and I’d rather stay away.

Tampa at Atlanta -9.5

Pick: Falcons -9.5, this line was -14 when it opened so you know where the public money is at. The Falcons are always tough at home and the Bucs have been awful on the road this year. The favourite is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams and Tampa just looks like a team that is utterly defeated and looking ahead to next year.

Pittsburgh -7 at Cleveland

Pick: Steelers -7, the Steelers could still win the AFC North and they could still get home field advantage throughout the playoffs. I’ll take the highly motivated Steelers over the dreadful home ATS record of the Browns (1-8-2 in their last 11 home games)

Baltimore -1.5 at Cincy

Pick: Bengals +1.5, I would probably stay away from this game and this pick is purely because it would be incredible to have the Bengals make the playoffs. They could still make the playoffs with an Oakland and NYJ loss, but a win and their in. Although the Ravens do have a lot to play for this week (AFC North title and also a shot a #1 seed). Shaping up to be a bruiser.

KC at Denver -1

Pick: Chiefs +1, I like what I’ve seen the last 2 weeks from the KC defence and Kyle Orton looks serviceable under centre as well. Tebow was awful last week in Buffalo and I think the Chiefs will be employing the same blanked type coverage the Bills did and force Tebow to throw into zone coverage. Two highly motivated teams in a hated rivalry game…in the end I like Orton sticking it to the team that dropped him and the KC defence picking off Tebow multiple times.

San Diego at Oakland -2.5

Pick: Raiders -2.5, the Chargers put up a stinker last week against the Lions ruining any hope for the playoffs. The Raiders need a win and some help to get to the playoffs. This one is tough to call though because San Diego is such a pain in the arse to bet on or against because they can be an elite team one week to a complete doormat the next week. Now I’m almost talking myself into picking the Chargers…ahh, I’ll just ride with Raidernation this week.

Seattle at Arizona -2.5

Pick: Cardinals -2.5, both teams are off disappointing losses last week that crushed any hopes for post season play. Both teams will be pushing to finish strong and end the year at .500. This is a tough one to call, but I like that the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 match ups.

Dallas at NYG -3

Pick: Giants -3, what a way to end the season. Basically a playoff game with the winner getting the final ticket to the playoffs. The main reason I am going with the G-men is their front 4 on defence appears to be fully healthy and that spells trouble for Romo and his banged up throwing hand. This will be a fun game to watch and likely will come down to last score wins.

 

 

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December 24, 2011

Sal’s Week 16 NFL Picks: Happy Holidays

By nalstradamus

Last week: 6-9-1

Season: 106-108-1

I missed Thursday’s game this week, but I probably would have lost that one as I would have picked Houston. Looks like it’s 20 minutes before halftime so I better hurry up and get to the picks.

New England -9

The Pats destroyed the Dolphins earlier this season and they still want to lock down the #1 seed in the AFC and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Baltimore -11

Similar to the Pats pick above. Baltimore still has something to play for and will try as hard they can to keep up with the Pats.

Arizona +4.5

Both teams desperate for the playoffs. I expect a close game.

Minny +6.5

AP angry from last weeks ugly loss. Washington coming off big rivalry win…letdown coming

Denver -3

Tebow and friends need this one bad to stave off the hot Chargers

Pittsburgh -10

I don’t love this pick, but I can’t back the Rams…ever

NYJ -3

This will be a bruising battle. The Jets are better at home, the Giants seem to stink it up in NYC

Carolina -9

Cam Newton gone wild. Tampa just playing out the string.

Titans -8

Slim slim playoff hopes, but still there so expect an all out effort

KC -2.5

Orton looks good under centre and the Raiders are in pure free fall mode.

San Diego +1.5

The Chargers are going to make the playoffs…they are money in December

Eagles +1

Dallas has a bunch of banged up stars and may rest them if NYG lose earlier in the day.

Seattle +1

Seattle is desperate and San Fran is coming off a monster win. Can Marshawn keep his TD streak alive against a team that doesn’t allow rushing TD’s?

Green Bay -11

Josh McCown starting for the Bears…that’s all I need to know.

 

Good Luck everyone and have a safe and merry Christmas!

Don’t blow all your money on those ridiculous boxing day deals either!

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December 14, 2011

Sal’s Week 15 NFL Picks

By nalstradamus

Last Week: 8-8

Season: 100-99-8

Really pressed for time this week so just going to list the picks with no commentary. Good luck.

Atlanta -11.5

Dallas -7

Cincy -6

Buffalo (no line available)

NYG -6.5

Tennessee -6.5

Seattle +3.5

GB -13.5

Houston -6

Minny +6.5

Detroit -1

Arizona -6.5

NYJ +3

NE -6

San Diego +1.5

Pittsburgh (no line available)

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December 13, 2011

Perfection or Protection?

By nalstradamus

Mr. Perfect says perfection...obviously

The Packers are 3 wins away from a perfect regular season. Their last 3 games shape up well for them to run the table: at the struggling Chiefs, at home against a depleted Bears offence and at home against the Lions. The question is, should they continue to run their starters out each week striving for perfection and risking injury or should they do what the 2009 Colts did and protect their starters for the playoffs. I don’t think there’s much of a debate to be had here. I say they should go for the gusto and try and run the table and go for a true perfect season to join the 72 Dolphins as the only team to be perfect both in the regular and postseason. Why you ask? There’s a few simple reasons.

Resting stars and virtually giving away games creates an atmosphere of losing in the locker room. An atmosphere that hasn’t been present in 19 games. The Packers currently have an air of invincibility about them, why ruin this by allowing lesser teams to defeat them? Think of it from the opposing teams point of view, would you rather face a team that comes in to the playoffs after a few losses to inferior teams or a team that hasn’t lost since December 19, 2010? The latter is much more intimidating.

Going for the true perfect season also keeps the players on the team extremely motivated. They wouldn’t just be playing for a perfect season, they’d be playing to be known as the best team in history. Packing it in and losing a few games in the regular season will take some of that edge off and likely will create some what if scenarios in some players heads.

The Packers are coming off a Super Bowl win last season so if there was a perfect time to risk it all for immortality this would be the year. If they were 20 years between championships or something then maybe more caution should be served in respect for a championship starved fan base. The Cheeseheads would go ballistic for a perfect season and would love to further cement the legendary status of their franchise in the history books.

The obvious risk of course is injury to key players. However, I bet if you asked any of the Packer stars they would tell you they want to play every game and go for history. They’ve proven they were the best team last year and so far this year no other team has even been close. Lets see if they can do what no other team has ever done and go 19-0 and be the best team that ever lived. Brett Favre would freak out in his Wranglers if it happened…I hope it does.

Can they run the table? I think so

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December 7, 2011

Sal’s Week 14 NFL Picks

By nalstradamus

Last Week: 8-8

Season: 92-91-8

Ho hum of a week last week. I honestly expected worse with the lack of time spent thinking about picks. It’s coming down to crunch time for teams with playoff aspirations and thus we’ll likely see a lot of tight ball games the next few weeks. There’s a lot of games to go through so lets get straight to it

Cleveland at Pittsburgh -14

Pick: Browns +14, scary pick here, but I’m going with the fact the Steelers are 0-3 as double digit favourites this year.

New England -9 at Washington

Pick: Patriots -9, just a few weeks ago I was saying possibly the Pats were washed up…yeah…I’m forever sorry Mr. Hoodie.

Kansas City at NYJ -9

Pick: Chiefs +9, this is a must win for the Jets, but I hate backing them when they are large favourites because their offence is so unpredictable. The Chiefs are scrappy and I see them hanging around in this one.

Houston at Cincinnati -3

Pick: Texans +3, Another desperate team, the Bengals need this game badly. However, the Bengals once tough D has been ravaged by injuries and that spells trouble against a juggernaut of an offence in the Texans.

New Orleans -3.5 at Tennesee

Pick: Titans +3.5, The Saints have been on a roll the last few weeks, but they are average on the road and the Titans are tough at home. CJ appears to be back and if he can keep up his hot play it will keep the Titans close.

CJ's back baby

Philadelphia at Miami -3

Pick: Dolphins -3, So much for the Dolphins winning the Luck sweepstakes. After starting 0-5 the fins have won 4 or their last 5 games. The Eagles looked awful last week and look like a defeated team limping to the finish.

Indianapolis at Baltimore -16.5

Pick: Colts +16.5, 0-12 is ugly, but I like what I saw last week when the colts were 21 point underdogs. Although they are playing a much better defence this week. Back door cover likely.

Atlanta -3 at Carolina

Pick: Panthers +3, Can the Falcons porous secondary stop Cam Newton? Im thinking not and I think the Panthers ruin the Falcons playoff dreams this week.

Chicago at Denver -3.5

Pick: Tebow -3.5, I strayed from the Tebow train for 1 week last week, I’m committed now.

Tebowing is sweeping the nation

San Francisco -3.5 at Arizona

Pick: Cardinals +3.5, the 49ers have already sealed the division so they may be in pure cruise control here on out.

Buffalo at San Diego -7

Pick: Chargers -7, the offence looks like it’s back for the Chargers, but their defence is still a mess. Lucky for them they are facing a banged up Buffalo team that will likely continue to struggle on both sides of the ball due to their lack of depth.

Oakland at Green Bay -11

Pick: Packers -11, the quest for 16-0 continues this week and I don’t see the Raiders having much of a chance stopping Aaron Rodgers and the boys.

NYG at Dallas -3.5

Pick: G-MEN +3.5, The biggest game of the week and as per usual the best game is the Sunday night game. These NFC east rivalry games are always tight and I don’t see that being any different here.

There are a few games with no lines out as I am typing this out…

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville

Pick: Bucs, I think the line will be tight, probably around -2 for the Jags. Blaine Gabbert looks lost right now and the Jags secondary is in shambles.

Minnesota at Detroit

Pick: Vikings, The Vikes will be the underdog in this one, probably by more than a touchdown. I like picking the dog in these bitter divisional rivalries.

St. Louis at Seattle

Pick: Rams, again I’m siding with the underdog in the rivalry game. Probably around a touchdown advantage given to the Hawks once the lines come out. I like picking the Hawks when they are home dogs, but I shy away when they are the home fave. Not quite a marquee match up for a Monday night game.

 

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December 1, 2011

Sal’s Week 13 NFL Picks Plus a Little C-Wall Banter

By nalstradamus

Last Week: 9-7

Season: 84-83-8

Not too bad of a week last week as I’ve nudged myself over the .500 hump again. The picks this week will either be very very bad or shockingly flukey. I am pressed for time this week, but I must continue this weekly streak of picks. Wifey is not around, so we’ll have to skip her fun picks this week.

Philly -3 at Seattle

Pick: Eagles -3, I usually like picking the Hawks at home when they are dogs because of how crazy their stadium is, but I just don’t like their chances in this one…especially on the offensive side of the ball. The passing game took a huge blow with their best wideout Sidney Rice being put on IR this week. Doug Baldwin and Ben Obomanu aren’t scaring nobody.

Oakland at Miami -3

Pick: Dolphins -3, The Dolphins have been a solid team the last 6 weeks. Their defence has been solid and their offence has been decent. The Raiders have won 3 in a row, but I think the streak has been a little deceiving in beating a Cutler-less Bears team, a weak Minny team and a floundering Chargers team.

Atlanta -3 at Houston

Pick: Texans +3, So much for Matt Leinart having a shot at proving himself. The Texans are down to their 3rd string QB, but really all he needs to do is keep handing it off to his 3 stud running backs and maybe throw an occasional PA pass to one of the best WR’s in the game.

Tennessee at Buffalo -1

Pick: Bills -1, The Bills are banged up big time, but they play tough at home. I also have CJ Spiller in fantasy so I’m extremely biased here.

KC at Chicago -7

Pick: Chiefs +7, seems like too many points to give to a team relying on Caleb Hanie

NYJ -3 at Washington

Pick: Jets -3, the Jets need this win badly. I see them picking off Grossman 3 to 4 times.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh -7

Pick: Bengals +7, seems like the Steelers let any team hang around

Denver at Minnesota -1

Pick: Vikings -1, I’ve been picking Tebow pretty much every week, but I have this gut feeling the Vikings roll the Broncos this week…

Carolina at Tampa Bay -3

Pick: Bucs -3, Lagarrette Blount against that Carolina run d is making his fantasy owners drool.

Indy at New England -20.5

Pick: Patriots -20.5, what an unreal line…I’m riding it

Baltimore -6.5 at Cleveland

Pick: Ravens -6.5, This seems to easy…it probably is, but I’ll take the bait.

Dallas -4.5 at Arizona

Pick: Cowboys -4.5, another suspicious line, I’m taking all the sucker bets this week

Green Bay -6.5 at NYG

Pick: Aaron Rodgers -6.5, can’t stop, won’t stop…un unh

St. Louis at San Fran -13.5

Pick: 49ers -13.5, It’s 49ers or nothing here, can’t lay it down with the Rams.

Detroit at New Orleans -9

Pick: Saints -9, I think we see a similar game out of the Saints as we did last week.

San Diego -3 at Jacksonville

Pick: Chargers -3, final hurrah for Norm and the Boys, desperado to the extreme

 

Onto the C-Wall

THE C-WALL

If you don’t know who the C-Wall is, it’s Cory Schneider of the Vancouver Canucks. He will be making his 7th straight start tonight, appeasing all the Lu Haters in Van City. He definitely deserves to keep starting with his ridiculous play of late, a 0.79 goals against with 2 shut outs during a current 5 game win streak. You have to wonder though, what happens if he wins another 2, 3, 4 games in a row? You gunna pull him after 1 loss after 10-12 amazing games? Luongo and C-Wall have been saying all the right things in the media, but I am a little afraid of the fallout if C-Wall keeps up his hot play and Luongo becomes the highest paid back-up next to Dipietro.  Yeah, yeah, I know it shouldn’t matter if the boys keep winning, but eventually this could become a major distraction for the whole team.

Easy solution, trade Luongo obviously.  Really, you want to roll to the Stanley Cup playoffs with Schneider and Eddie Lack as your goalies? Luongo doesn’t have a cup, but he has experience, he’s been in huge games before. Schneider has skills,  that’s for sure, but I don’t think he’s ready to be “the man” right now. Actually, if you want to trade someone, trading Schneider right now would give you the most bang for your buck. In the end Gillis would be nuts to break up this studly goalie tandem . Canucks fans should just sit back and be smug that they have arguably the best goalie tandem in the league. Fans all over the league would kill to have this so called ‘problem’.

 

 

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November 23, 2011

Sal’s Week 12 NFL Picks…Turkey Edition

By nalstradamus

Bacon wrapped turducken...I kind of marfed

Last Week: 5-7-2

Season: 75-76-8

My season record has dipped under .500 for the first time since week 2. Wifey also had a terrible week with her random picks going 3-9-2. This NFL season has the most parity we’ve seen in maybe…forever. Other than the Packers who continue to be unstoppable. This season has also been a season full of injuries to fantasy football stars. I’m going to try really hard not to whine, but with Fred Jackson’s season ending injury I have now lost both my starting running backs (the other being Jamaal Charles).  However, there have been notable injuries all over the league like Jay Cutler, Matt Schaub, Kenny Britt, Peyton Hillis, etc. Anyway, I’m short on time this week so I’m going rapid fire with the picks this week. Prrrrat.

Green Bay -6.5 at Detroit

Pick: Packers -6.5, finally a Thanksgiving game in Detroit that means something. Aaron Rodgers is an alien.

Miami at Dallas -7

Pick: Dolphins +7, this is purely because the guy I play in fantasy has 4 Cowboys on his team. Praying for a miracle.

San Fran at Baltimore -3.5

Pick: 49ers +3.5, I’m going to keep rolling with them since they are undefeated against the spread this season

Minnesota at Atlanta -9.5

Pick: Falcons -9.5, No AP for the Vikes means big trouble.

Houston -3.5 at Jacksonville

Pick: Texans -3.5, Yes Matt Leinart is under centre now, but the Texans don’t need to throw with 3 running backs that can plow.

Tampa Bay at Tenn -3.5

Pick: Bucs +3.5, no magic reasons here, just pure gut

Arizona at St. Louis (no line)

Pick: Cardinals, seriously would you actually bet on this game?

Cleveland at Cincy -9

Pick: Bengals -9, Bengals d will be too much for a weak Browns offense to handle

Buffalo at NYJ -9

Pick: Jets -9, the Bills are decimated by injuries and Fitzpatrick will continue to struggle behind a beat-up O-Line.

Carolina -3.5 at Indy

Pick: Panthers -3.5, Cam Newton may throw for 300 and run for 100 in this one.

Washington at Seattle -3.5

Pick: Seahawks -3.5, The Hawks are tough at home and their defense is tough against the run. Grossman being forced to pass is not an ideal situation.

Chicago at Oakland -4

Pick: Raiders -4, No Cutler no win

New England -3 at Philly

Pick: Patriots -3, the dynamic TE duo against a weak linebacker corps means another tough loss for the Eagles

Denver at San Diego -6

Pick: Tebow +6, I can’t back the Chargers right now, they are in pure freefall mode

Pittsburgh -10.5 at KC

Pick: Steelers -10.5, likely a repeat of Pats beatdown last week

NYG at New Orleans -7

Pick: G-men +7, Eli and his receiving crew can keep up with Brees and the boys. The Giants d is coming around.

Wifey’s random picks:

Packers -6.5

Cowboys -7

49ers +3.5

Vikings +9.5

Texans -3.5

Titans -3.5

Rams

Bengals -9

Jets -9

Colts +3.5

Seahawks -3.5

Bears +4

Eagles +3

Saints -7

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