Category Archives: Gambling

January 1, 2012

Sal’s Week 17 NFL Picks: The Hangover Edition

By nalstradamus

Last Week: 5-9

Season: 111-117-9

 

I probably should have wrote this yesterday to avoid trying to concentrate with a brutal headache and a tongue that feels like a towel. I need a big week this week to finish at or above .500 for the year. Week 17 is probably the 2nd toughest week to pick winners next to week 1. Some teams will be playing back-ups to rest stars for the playoffs and other teams maybe playing more rookies and fringe players to see what they have moving forward for next year. Good luck everybody and enjoy your hangovers.

Washington at Philly -9

Pick: Eagles -9, too little too late for the Eagles in a season where many big things were expected. The Eagles have won 3 straight and it looks like their maligned defence has started to click. I don’t love this pick, but gun to my head I pick the Eagles.

NYJ at Miami -3

Pick: Jets +3, this is a must win game for the Jets who need a whole bunch of things to fall their way in order to make the playoffs. This might also be the last shot for Sanchez to prove to the Jets brass that he should be the main man moving forward.

Carolina at New Orleans -7

Pick: Saints -7, the Saints still have something to play for and they need a win over the Panthers to get the 2nd seed in the NFC. The Saints are undefeated at home and undefeated ATS at home. That’s good enough for me.

Detroit -6.5 at Green Bay

Pick: Lions -6.5, the Packers are likely to rest most of their stars in this one. Tough to call though because Detroit will likely not want to show Green Bay too much as they may face each other again fairly soon in the playoffs.

San Francisco -12 at St. Louis

Pick: 49ers -12, the 49ers control their destiny for the 2nd seed in the NFC. With a win they get the bye. What worries me about this pick is that the 49ers get off to a huge lead and start resting starters for the playoffs allowing the Rams to get the backdoor cover.

Indy at Jacksonville -3

Pick: Colts +3, Indy’s covered their last 4 games including their last 2 games on the road. The public is on the Colts as this line was -5.

Buffalo at New England -10

Pick: Patriots -10, if the Pats win they clinch home field throughout the playoffs. It looks like Tom Brady will play in this game. This is also a revenge spot as the Pats look to avenge a September 25 loss in Buffalo.

Tennessee -1 at Houston

Pick: Titans -1, the Titans still have still have an outside shot at the playoffs, but that all won’t matter if they lose against Houston. The Texans have nothing to play for and are a banged up squad. They will likely rest their starters in this one.

Chicago at Minny -1.5

Pick: Bears +1.5, both teams playing for pride this week. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 match ups against the Vikes…although the favourite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 match ups. Basically what I’m saying here is this is a pure guess and I’d rather stay away.

Tampa at Atlanta -9.5

Pick: Falcons -9.5, this line was -14 when it opened so you know where the public money is at. The Falcons are always tough at home and the Bucs have been awful on the road this year. The favourite is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams and Tampa just looks like a team that is utterly defeated and looking ahead to next year.

Pittsburgh -7 at Cleveland

Pick: Steelers -7, the Steelers could still win the AFC North and they could still get home field advantage throughout the playoffs. I’ll take the highly motivated Steelers over the dreadful home ATS record of the Browns (1-8-2 in their last 11 home games)

Baltimore -1.5 at Cincy

Pick: Bengals +1.5, I would probably stay away from this game and this pick is purely because it would be incredible to have the Bengals make the playoffs. They could still make the playoffs with an Oakland and NYJ loss, but a win and their in. Although the Ravens do have a lot to play for this week (AFC North title and also a shot a #1 seed). Shaping up to be a bruiser.

KC at Denver -1

Pick: Chiefs +1, I like what I’ve seen the last 2 weeks from the KC defence and Kyle Orton looks serviceable under centre as well. Tebow was awful last week in Buffalo and I think the Chiefs will be employing the same blanked type coverage the Bills did and force Tebow to throw into zone coverage. Two highly motivated teams in a hated rivalry game…in the end I like Orton sticking it to the team that dropped him and the KC defence picking off Tebow multiple times.

San Diego at Oakland -2.5

Pick: Raiders -2.5, the Chargers put up a stinker last week against the Lions ruining any hope for the playoffs. The Raiders need a win and some help to get to the playoffs. This one is tough to call though because San Diego is such a pain in the arse to bet on or against because they can be an elite team one week to a complete doormat the next week. Now I’m almost talking myself into picking the Chargers…ahh, I’ll just ride with Raidernation this week.

Seattle at Arizona -2.5

Pick: Cardinals -2.5, both teams are off disappointing losses last week that crushed any hopes for post season play. Both teams will be pushing to finish strong and end the year at .500. This is a tough one to call, but I like that the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 match ups.

Dallas at NYG -3

Pick: Giants -3, what a way to end the season. Basically a playoff game with the winner getting the final ticket to the playoffs. The main reason I am going with the G-men is their front 4 on defence appears to be fully healthy and that spells trouble for Romo and his banged up throwing hand. This will be a fun game to watch and likely will come down to last score wins.

 

 

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December 24, 2011

Sal’s Week 16 NFL Picks: Happy Holidays

By nalstradamus

Last week: 6-9-1

Season: 106-108-1

I missed Thursday’s game this week, but I probably would have lost that one as I would have picked Houston. Looks like it’s 20 minutes before halftime so I better hurry up and get to the picks.

New England -9

The Pats destroyed the Dolphins earlier this season and they still want to lock down the #1 seed in the AFC and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Baltimore -11

Similar to the Pats pick above. Baltimore still has something to play for and will try as hard they can to keep up with the Pats.

Arizona +4.5

Both teams desperate for the playoffs. I expect a close game.

Minny +6.5

AP angry from last weeks ugly loss. Washington coming off big rivalry win…letdown coming

Denver -3

Tebow and friends need this one bad to stave off the hot Chargers

Pittsburgh -10

I don’t love this pick, but I can’t back the Rams…ever

NYJ -3

This will be a bruising battle. The Jets are better at home, the Giants seem to stink it up in NYC

Carolina -9

Cam Newton gone wild. Tampa just playing out the string.

Titans -8

Slim slim playoff hopes, but still there so expect an all out effort

KC -2.5

Orton looks good under centre and the Raiders are in pure free fall mode.

San Diego +1.5

The Chargers are going to make the playoffs…they are money in December

Eagles +1

Dallas has a bunch of banged up stars and may rest them if NYG lose earlier in the day.

Seattle +1

Seattle is desperate and San Fran is coming off a monster win. Can Marshawn keep his TD streak alive against a team that doesn’t allow rushing TD’s?

Green Bay -11

Josh McCown starting for the Bears…that’s all I need to know.

 

Good Luck everyone and have a safe and merry Christmas!

Don’t blow all your money on those ridiculous boxing day deals either!

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December 14, 2011

Sal’s Week 15 NFL Picks

By nalstradamus

Last Week: 8-8

Season: 100-99-8

Really pressed for time this week so just going to list the picks with no commentary. Good luck.

Atlanta -11.5

Dallas -7

Cincy -6

Buffalo (no line available)

NYG -6.5

Tennessee -6.5

Seattle +3.5

GB -13.5

Houston -6

Minny +6.5

Detroit -1

Arizona -6.5

NYJ +3

NE -6

San Diego +1.5

Pittsburgh (no line available)

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December 7, 2011

Sal’s Week 14 NFL Picks

By nalstradamus

Last Week: 8-8

Season: 92-91-8

Ho hum of a week last week. I honestly expected worse with the lack of time spent thinking about picks. It’s coming down to crunch time for teams with playoff aspirations and thus we’ll likely see a lot of tight ball games the next few weeks. There’s a lot of games to go through so lets get straight to it

Cleveland at Pittsburgh -14

Pick: Browns +14, scary pick here, but I’m going with the fact the Steelers are 0-3 as double digit favourites this year.

New England -9 at Washington

Pick: Patriots -9, just a few weeks ago I was saying possibly the Pats were washed up…yeah…I’m forever sorry Mr. Hoodie.

Kansas City at NYJ -9

Pick: Chiefs +9, this is a must win for the Jets, but I hate backing them when they are large favourites because their offence is so unpredictable. The Chiefs are scrappy and I see them hanging around in this one.

Houston at Cincinnati -3

Pick: Texans +3, Another desperate team, the Bengals need this game badly. However, the Bengals once tough D has been ravaged by injuries and that spells trouble against a juggernaut of an offence in the Texans.

New Orleans -3.5 at Tennesee

Pick: Titans +3.5, The Saints have been on a roll the last few weeks, but they are average on the road and the Titans are tough at home. CJ appears to be back and if he can keep up his hot play it will keep the Titans close.

CJ's back baby

Philadelphia at Miami -3

Pick: Dolphins -3, So much for the Dolphins winning the Luck sweepstakes. After starting 0-5 the fins have won 4 or their last 5 games. The Eagles looked awful last week and look like a defeated team limping to the finish.

Indianapolis at Baltimore -16.5

Pick: Colts +16.5, 0-12 is ugly, but I like what I saw last week when the colts were 21 point underdogs. Although they are playing a much better defence this week. Back door cover likely.

Atlanta -3 at Carolina

Pick: Panthers +3, Can the Falcons porous secondary stop Cam Newton? Im thinking not and I think the Panthers ruin the Falcons playoff dreams this week.

Chicago at Denver -3.5

Pick: Tebow -3.5, I strayed from the Tebow train for 1 week last week, I’m committed now.

Tebowing is sweeping the nation

San Francisco -3.5 at Arizona

Pick: Cardinals +3.5, the 49ers have already sealed the division so they may be in pure cruise control here on out.

Buffalo at San Diego -7

Pick: Chargers -7, the offence looks like it’s back for the Chargers, but their defence is still a mess. Lucky for them they are facing a banged up Buffalo team that will likely continue to struggle on both sides of the ball due to their lack of depth.

Oakland at Green Bay -11

Pick: Packers -11, the quest for 16-0 continues this week and I don’t see the Raiders having much of a chance stopping Aaron Rodgers and the boys.

NYG at Dallas -3.5

Pick: G-MEN +3.5, The biggest game of the week and as per usual the best game is the Sunday night game. These NFC east rivalry games are always tight and I don’t see that being any different here.

There are a few games with no lines out as I am typing this out…

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville

Pick: Bucs, I think the line will be tight, probably around -2 for the Jags. Blaine Gabbert looks lost right now and the Jags secondary is in shambles.

Minnesota at Detroit

Pick: Vikings, The Vikes will be the underdog in this one, probably by more than a touchdown. I like picking the dog in these bitter divisional rivalries.

St. Louis at Seattle

Pick: Rams, again I’m siding with the underdog in the rivalry game. Probably around a touchdown advantage given to the Hawks once the lines come out. I like picking the Hawks when they are home dogs, but I shy away when they are the home fave. Not quite a marquee match up for a Monday night game.

 

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December 1, 2011

Sal’s Week 13 NFL Picks Plus a Little C-Wall Banter

By nalstradamus

Last Week: 9-7

Season: 84-83-8

Not too bad of a week last week as I’ve nudged myself over the .500 hump again. The picks this week will either be very very bad or shockingly flukey. I am pressed for time this week, but I must continue this weekly streak of picks. Wifey is not around, so we’ll have to skip her fun picks this week.

Philly -3 at Seattle

Pick: Eagles -3, I usually like picking the Hawks at home when they are dogs because of how crazy their stadium is, but I just don’t like their chances in this one…especially on the offensive side of the ball. The passing game took a huge blow with their best wideout Sidney Rice being put on IR this week. Doug Baldwin and Ben Obomanu aren’t scaring nobody.

Oakland at Miami -3

Pick: Dolphins -3, The Dolphins have been a solid team the last 6 weeks. Their defence has been solid and their offence has been decent. The Raiders have won 3 in a row, but I think the streak has been a little deceiving in beating a Cutler-less Bears team, a weak Minny team and a floundering Chargers team.

Atlanta -3 at Houston

Pick: Texans +3, So much for Matt Leinart having a shot at proving himself. The Texans are down to their 3rd string QB, but really all he needs to do is keep handing it off to his 3 stud running backs and maybe throw an occasional PA pass to one of the best WR’s in the game.

Tennessee at Buffalo -1

Pick: Bills -1, The Bills are banged up big time, but they play tough at home. I also have CJ Spiller in fantasy so I’m extremely biased here.

KC at Chicago -7

Pick: Chiefs +7, seems like too many points to give to a team relying on Caleb Hanie

NYJ -3 at Washington

Pick: Jets -3, the Jets need this win badly. I see them picking off Grossman 3 to 4 times.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh -7

Pick: Bengals +7, seems like the Steelers let any team hang around

Denver at Minnesota -1

Pick: Vikings -1, I’ve been picking Tebow pretty much every week, but I have this gut feeling the Vikings roll the Broncos this week…

Carolina at Tampa Bay -3

Pick: Bucs -3, Lagarrette Blount against that Carolina run d is making his fantasy owners drool.

Indy at New England -20.5

Pick: Patriots -20.5, what an unreal line…I’m riding it

Baltimore -6.5 at Cleveland

Pick: Ravens -6.5, This seems to easy…it probably is, but I’ll take the bait.

Dallas -4.5 at Arizona

Pick: Cowboys -4.5, another suspicious line, I’m taking all the sucker bets this week

Green Bay -6.5 at NYG

Pick: Aaron Rodgers -6.5, can’t stop, won’t stop…un unh

St. Louis at San Fran -13.5

Pick: 49ers -13.5, It’s 49ers or nothing here, can’t lay it down with the Rams.

Detroit at New Orleans -9

Pick: Saints -9, I think we see a similar game out of the Saints as we did last week.

San Diego -3 at Jacksonville

Pick: Chargers -3, final hurrah for Norm and the Boys, desperado to the extreme

 

Onto the C-Wall

THE C-WALL

If you don’t know who the C-Wall is, it’s Cory Schneider of the Vancouver Canucks. He will be making his 7th straight start tonight, appeasing all the Lu Haters in Van City. He definitely deserves to keep starting with his ridiculous play of late, a 0.79 goals against with 2 shut outs during a current 5 game win streak. You have to wonder though, what happens if he wins another 2, 3, 4 games in a row? You gunna pull him after 1 loss after 10-12 amazing games? Luongo and C-Wall have been saying all the right things in the media, but I am a little afraid of the fallout if C-Wall keeps up his hot play and Luongo becomes the highest paid back-up next to Dipietro.  Yeah, yeah, I know it shouldn’t matter if the boys keep winning, but eventually this could become a major distraction for the whole team.

Easy solution, trade Luongo obviously.  Really, you want to roll to the Stanley Cup playoffs with Schneider and Eddie Lack as your goalies? Luongo doesn’t have a cup, but he has experience, he’s been in huge games before. Schneider has skills,  that’s for sure, but I don’t think he’s ready to be “the man” right now. Actually, if you want to trade someone, trading Schneider right now would give you the most bang for your buck. In the end Gillis would be nuts to break up this studly goalie tandem . Canucks fans should just sit back and be smug that they have arguably the best goalie tandem in the league. Fans all over the league would kill to have this so called ‘problem’.

 

 

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November 23, 2011

Sal’s Week 12 NFL Picks…Turkey Edition

By nalstradamus

Bacon wrapped turducken...I kind of marfed

Last Week: 5-7-2

Season: 75-76-8

My season record has dipped under .500 for the first time since week 2. Wifey also had a terrible week with her random picks going 3-9-2. This NFL season has the most parity we’ve seen in maybe…forever. Other than the Packers who continue to be unstoppable. This season has also been a season full of injuries to fantasy football stars. I’m going to try really hard not to whine, but with Fred Jackson’s season ending injury I have now lost both my starting running backs (the other being Jamaal Charles).  However, there have been notable injuries all over the league like Jay Cutler, Matt Schaub, Kenny Britt, Peyton Hillis, etc. Anyway, I’m short on time this week so I’m going rapid fire with the picks this week. Prrrrat.

Green Bay -6.5 at Detroit

Pick: Packers -6.5, finally a Thanksgiving game in Detroit that means something. Aaron Rodgers is an alien.

Miami at Dallas -7

Pick: Dolphins +7, this is purely because the guy I play in fantasy has 4 Cowboys on his team. Praying for a miracle.

San Fran at Baltimore -3.5

Pick: 49ers +3.5, I’m going to keep rolling with them since they are undefeated against the spread this season

Minnesota at Atlanta -9.5

Pick: Falcons -9.5, No AP for the Vikes means big trouble.

Houston -3.5 at Jacksonville

Pick: Texans -3.5, Yes Matt Leinart is under centre now, but the Texans don’t need to throw with 3 running backs that can plow.

Tampa Bay at Tenn -3.5

Pick: Bucs +3.5, no magic reasons here, just pure gut

Arizona at St. Louis (no line)

Pick: Cardinals, seriously would you actually bet on this game?

Cleveland at Cincy -9

Pick: Bengals -9, Bengals d will be too much for a weak Browns offense to handle

Buffalo at NYJ -9

Pick: Jets -9, the Bills are decimated by injuries and Fitzpatrick will continue to struggle behind a beat-up O-Line.

Carolina -3.5 at Indy

Pick: Panthers -3.5, Cam Newton may throw for 300 and run for 100 in this one.

Washington at Seattle -3.5

Pick: Seahawks -3.5, The Hawks are tough at home and their defense is tough against the run. Grossman being forced to pass is not an ideal situation.

Chicago at Oakland -4

Pick: Raiders -4, No Cutler no win

New England -3 at Philly

Pick: Patriots -3, the dynamic TE duo against a weak linebacker corps means another tough loss for the Eagles

Denver at San Diego -6

Pick: Tebow +6, I can’t back the Chargers right now, they are in pure freefall mode

Pittsburgh -10.5 at KC

Pick: Steelers -10.5, likely a repeat of Pats beatdown last week

NYG at New Orleans -7

Pick: G-men +7, Eli and his receiving crew can keep up with Brees and the boys. The Giants d is coming around.

Wifey’s random picks:

Packers -6.5

Cowboys -7

49ers +3.5

Vikings +9.5

Texans -3.5

Titans -3.5

Rams

Bengals -9

Jets -9

Colts +3.5

Seahawks -3.5

Bears +4

Eagles +3

Saints -7

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November 16, 2011

Sal’s Week 11 NFL Picks

By nalstradamus

Last week: 8-8

Season: 70-69-6

Not sure what this has to do with football...oh well

This is getting embarrassing, wifey has defeated me two weeks in a row (she went 9-7 last week). This week we’re starting off with her picks and this week I’m including her rationale for her picks (remember, she has never watched football). I’ll add my picks at the end…not that it matters anymore :(

NYJ -6 at Denver

Pick: Jets -6

Reason: “People from New York seem to be winners”

Carolina at Detroit -7

Pick: Lions -7

Reason: “Lions would win in a street fight, they’re the king of the jungle”

Tampa Bay at Green Bay -14

Pick: Packers -14

Reason: “Of all the teams, the team I know best. You seem to like them”

Dallas -7.5 at Washington

Pick: Cowboys -7.5

Reason: “The Redskins sound racist”

Buffalo at Miami -1

Pick: Dolphins -1

Reason: “Dolphins are the much smarter animal, they would outwit a buffalo if they fought”

Jacksonville at Cleveland -1

Pick: Jaguars +1

Reason: “What’s a brown? If it’s just the colour then that’s stupid”

Oakland -1 at Minnesota

Pick: Vikings +1

Reason: “Vikings seem tougher than pirates, more vicious”

Cincinnati at Baltimore -7

Pick: Bengals +7

Reason: “Seriously? a Bengal against a bird?”

Seattle at St. Louis -1

Pick: Rams -1

Reason: “Because you told me that the Seahawks suck”

Arizona at San Fran -9.5

Pick: Cardinals +9.5

Reason: “I don’t know what a 49er is, I know what a Cardinal is”

San Diego at Chicago -3.5

Pick: Bears -3.5

Reason: “Bears are cuddly”

Tennessee at Atlanta -6

Pick: Titans +6

Reason: “Titans sound tough, although I have no idea what a Titan is”

Philadelphia at NYG -4.5

Pick: Giants -4.5

Reason: “Giants should always win against any animal”

Kansas City at New England -14.5

Pick: Chiefs +14.5

Reason: “I don’t have anything nice to say about the Patriots so I won’t say anything at all”

I actually like her picks…sigh…here are my picks…

Jets -6: Rex will have the boys raging after losing to their arch enemies last week. Tim Tebow vs. a pissed off Jets defence scares me.

Panthers +7: This one seems too easy for me, this line screams out that the Lions are the no brainer play. Panthers are awful on the road, Lions are coming off an embarrassing loss. When it’s too easy…it usually is

Packers -14: The Bucs are free falling and this is the worst scenario possible for a struggling team. Seriously, is Aaron Rodgers human?

Redskins +7.5: I know the Skins are awful right now, but this just seems like too many points in a rivalry match up. These two teams historically play tight games and I don’t see that changing here.

Bills +1: The fins have won 2 games in a row while the Bills have lost 2 in a row in ugly fashion. I still believe in the beard of Fitzpatrick and the legs of Fred Jackson.

Jaguars +1: The Browns’ offence is awful. The Jags are nothing special either, but they are mere millimetres better than the Browns. Good enough.

Raiders -1: The Raiders are coming off a monster win last week against the Chargers.  Carson Palmer looked re-born last week lobbing up bombs to his young speedsters. He may have another big day against a Viking secondary that just lost it’s best pass defender Antoine Winfield for the year.

Ravens -7: After facing the bruising Steelers the Bengals have to face an angry Ravens team that were embarrassed last week by the lowly Seahawks. The Bengals also lost a huge piece of their secondary for the year last week in Leon Hall. I think the Ravens win by 2 touchdowns or more.

Rams -1: Both teams coming off wins, but the Seahawks are due for a letdown after their huge upset win last week.

49ers -9.5: I’m going to keep picking the 49ers every week until their ATS streak is popped. The 49ers are 8-0-1 against the spread this year. A lot of points especially with Frank Gore a little dinged up, but John Skelton on the road against a not so terrible 49ers d is scary.

Bears -3.5: I agree with wifey, bears are cuddly. Norv Turner is done-so for sure if the Chargers don’t make the playoffs this year. I don’t see happiness this week for the Chargers who are facing a Bears team that seems to have figured it all out. The offensive line has learned to protect Cutler and Mike Martz is giving in and letting Matt Forte run wild instead of relying on 12 foot drop type routes.

Falcons -6: This one is a tough one for me to call. Which Titan team is going to show up…actually which CJ is going to show up is the better question. The Falcons secondary seems to keep any team in the game, but I just have a feeling Matty ice and the boys find a way to pull this one out at home.

Giants -4.5: Mike Vick may not play this week due to some sore ribs. Regardless, last week’s loss to the Cardinals was unforgivable. I’ll take the G-men at home even if Vick plays.

Patriots -14.5: This could get ugly early. Tyler Palko will get the start for the Chiefs at QB…that’s all I needed to hear.

 

My face after I beat wifey this week

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November 9, 2011

Sal’s Week 10 NFL Picks

By nalstradamus

Last week: 6-8

Season: 62-61-6

Can't wipe the smile off her face

Last week was an embarrassment not only because of the sub .500 record, but also because the wife’s randoms picks went 7-7. I just told her about her win and she won’t stop cheering. Thursday night games start this week and thus the reason for posting the weekly pics a few days earlier this week. The confidence is at an all time low…FADE ME!

Oakland at San Diego -7

Pick: Chargers -7, this is a monster game for both teams, but maybe more so for the Chargers who have lost 3 in a row. Philip Rivers has been a picks machine this year, but I think he’s going to have a monster game this week against a very weak Raiders d. The Raiders will again be without their superstar running back Darren McFadden and their offence just isn’t the same without him. Carson Palmer won’t be able to keep up with the offensive onslaught from the Chargers this week. Desperation and home field…I’ll take the chargers

Jacksonville -3 at Indy

Pick: Colts +3, this matchup makes me a little nauseous and if there was a week where the Colts could win a game this would be it. I have about 2% confidence in this pick, two below average teams, I’ll take the home team if I had to choose.

Denver at KC -3.5

Pick: Chiefs -3.5, the Tebow show pulled it out last week against the Raiders while the Chiefs stunk up the joint against the previously winless Dolphins. These teams match up pretty evenly. My thinking may be whack here, but Id rather take the home team coming off an embarrassing loss rather than a team coming off a huge win on the road.

Pittsburgh -3 at Cincinnati

Pick: Steelers -3, a monster game for both teams this week. The Bengals have shocked the world so far with their 6-2 record, but their schedule has been very favourable the last 4 weeks. The Bengals defence has been their strong point this year, but again the only strong offence they’ve faced this year was the Bills. The Steelers avenge last weeks big loss to their mortal enemies and spank the cats in this one.

Buffalo at Dallas -5.5

Pick: Bills +5.5, the Bills were taken to town by their division rival Jets last week, while the Cowboys had a virtual bye week in a win versus the Seahawks. This will be a tough road game for the Bills, but I believe in Fitzpatrick and the beard more than I believe in Romo and his inconsistent play.

New Orleans -1 at Atlanta

Pick: Saints -1, another monster match up between division rivals. This should be a fun game to watch as it seems all games between these two teams comes down to the wire. Both defences will have trouble stopping the other team, but I feel the Falcons will have a tougher time of stopping Drew Brees an co. then vice versa.

St. Louis at Cleveland -2.5

Pick: Browns -2.5, the complete opposite of the above matchup, this game could potentially be the least watched game of the week. The Browns defence is actually serviceable while the Rams struggle on both sides of the ball. I see an ugly 13-6 type of outcome in this one.

Washington at Miami -4

Pick: Dolphins -4, The fish got off the snide last week with a big road win against the Chiefs. The Redskins continue to spiral down the NFC East losing 4 straight. The Dolphins seem to have figured it out on offence…feed the ball to Brandon Marshall and Reggie Bush. The ‘fins have been fairly steady on defence lately and they face an out of sorts ‘Skins offence without their top playmaker Santana Moss.

Houston -3.5 at Tampa Bay

Pick: Texans -3.5, the Texans are rolling right now and they’ve been doing it by pounding the rock with their two headed monster running attack with Arian Foster and Ben Tate. The Bucs have been inconsistent all year and I don’t see them having enough to keep up with the Texans offensive attack.

Tennessee at Carolina -3.5

Pick: Panthers -3.5, I think I’m too heavily biased in this one because Cam Newton is my fantasy QB and I am in a dogfight for one of the final playoff spots in my league. Numbers wise these teams match up fairly well on defence, but it’s on offence where the Panthers have a big advantage. I’ll take the rested Panthers at home.

Arizona at Philadelphia (no line out yet)

Pick: Eagles, the line will be monstrous, probably in the -14 range. The Cardinals may be without Kevin Kolb again this week and that does not bode well against one of the tougher pass defences in the league. The Eagles are coming off a big loss on Monday night and will be the more desperate team in this one.

Baltimore -7 at Seattle

Pick: Seahawks +7, this could be a huge letdown game for the Ravens after their huge win against the Steelers last week. It’s tough to pull the trigger on the ‘Hawks, but I’ll use evidence from earlier this year when the Ravens beat the Steelers and put up a stinker against the Titans the following week.

NYG at San Fran -3.5

Pick: 49ers -3.5, the Giants are coming off a monster win last week winning at New England…no one wins in New England other than Tom Brady. It’s tough to back them for back to back wins on the road. The 49ers are an amazing 7-0-1 against the spread this year. I’ll back the soon to be NFC West champs.

Detroit at Chicago -2.5

Pick: Bears -2.5, it looks like the Bears offensive line has figured out how to block and Cutler has shown if he has time he can be top tier material. This a revenge spot for the Bears as the Lions beat them 4 weeks ago in Detroit. I’ll back the home team in yet another monster rivalry game.

New England at NYJ -1

Pick: Jets -1, wow, this has to be the best week for match-ups so far this year. An endless assortment of games to drool over. Is it panic time in New England? Maybe. This game is too tough to call in my opinion, all the voices in my head scream Pats because they can’t lose 3 in a row right? However, maybe the lustre is fading with the Pats and the first ominous sign was last week’s home loss. The Jets on the other hand are on fire and would love to continue their arch rivals losing ways.

Minnesota at Green Bay -13

Pick: Packers -13, Can anyone stop the Packers offence? It is just ridiculous what they have been able to do week in and week out this year. The back door cover is always possible, but I don’t see the Aaron Rodgers train slowing down this week.

And here to show me up for the 2nd straight week is wifey with her wifey random picks for this week:

Raiders +7

Colts +3

Broncos +3.5

Steelers -3

Cowboys -5.5

Saints -1

Rams +2.5

Dolphins -4

Texans -3.5

Titans +3.5

Eagles -14 (made up line, no line available)

Ravens -7

Giants +3.5

Bears -2.5

Jets -1

Packers -13

 

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November 5, 2011

Sal’s Week 9 NFL Picks

By nalstradamus

Last week: 6-6-1

Season: 56-53-6

Listen to the gut

Last week was tough, monster double digit lines filled the board. 4 out of the 5 double digit dawgs covered last week with the Rams producing the shock of the week beating the Saints. This week the lines are a bit tighter with the week highlighted by two marquee match ups in the Jets vs Bills and Ravens vs Steelers. I’ve been over thinking things the last few weeks, so this week it’s all about gut…scary! I’m also going to introduce a fun segment at the end of this weeks post. Onto the picks…

Atlanta -7.5 at Indy (line opened at -9)

Pick: Colts +7.5, I would have liked to have the extra 1.5 points, but oh well. Yes, I understand the Colts are tied for the Andrew Luck championship of the world, but I just can’t back the Falcons on the road with that awful defence. Even the ugliest of dawgs have their day, just look at the Rams last week. In all honesty, I would just plain out avoid this game.

NYJ at Bills -3 (line opened at -1)

Pick: Jets +3, it seems obvious to pick the Bills in this spot, they are 4-0 at home while the Jets are 0-3 on the road. However, I say forget all logic and look at these facts. The Bills are still an average to below average defence, especially against the run. The Jets specialty is stubbornly still ground and pound and I see them being able to eat up clock all day tomorrow. Ryan Fitzpatrick may have his least productive game of the season tomorrow going against a top tier passing defence and Revis island. Fred Jackson will need to be a monster for the Bills in order to pull this one out. I see the Jets ground game and defence pulling this one out for them tomorrow.

Cleveland at Houston -10.5 (line has not moved at most places)

Pick: Browns +10.5, I’m not even going to try to BS this one…this is pure guessing. I wouldn’t bet this game personally.

Miami at KC -4 (line opened at -5)

Pick: Chiefs -4, after a terrible o-3 start the Chiefs have somehow overcome devastating injuries on both sides of the ball to win 4 straight. The Dolphins are winless and are my choice to win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. The Dolphins have been playing well the last few weeks, especially Reggie Bush who had his first 100 yard rushing game last week since 2006. However, I don’t see the ‘fins having enough against one of the hottest teams in the AFC, in one of the tougher road venues in the league.

San Francisco -4 at Washington (line opened at -3.5)

Pick: 49ers -4, this pick seems to easy just like the Bills game. However, the Redskins are not the Jets. The ‘skins are also banged up on offence and may now be without their only real offensive threat in Fred Davis. The 49ers are an ATS machine this year, covering the spread in 6 out of 7 games this year with the lone non-cover being a push. The ‘skins on the other hand have failed to cover the spread in 3 consecutive games. I don’t see this one being close at all…the 49ers have the edge on offence, defence and even kicking…good night.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans -9 (line opened at same number)

Pick: Bucs +9, this is a scary pick because the Saints are coming off a humiliating loss to the Rams last week and this is also a revenge game as the Bucs beat the Saints in Tampa just a couple weeks ago. The Saints will come out flying in this one, but I think the Bucs will be able to hold their own and I think they have a good chance for the outright win. LaGarrette Blount should be back for the Bucs and this should give more balance to the offence and help milk some clock to keep the aerial attack of the Saints off the field.

Seattle at Dallas -11 (line opened at -14)

Pick: Cowboys -11, I don’t really like backing a Romo lead offence when the line is double digits, but I don’t see the alternative being all that exciting. The ‘Boys were spanked by the Eagles last week and will be hungry to put that loss behind them. The Seahawks have had 2 straight horrible games, although it can be mainly blamed on the Whitehurst experience. The Dallas aerial explosion will be too much for the Hawks to keep up with and this one will likely be a comfy win for the ‘Boys at home.

Denver at Oakland -7 (line opened at -8.5)

Pick: Broncos +7, the Raiders have dominated this matchup recently winning 4 straight against their arch rivals. The Broncos and Tim Tebow were thoroughly annihilated in their last game against the Lions. This could be the last episode of the Tebow experiment and because of this, I see his best effort yet coming tomorrow. The Raiders will be without their star running back McFadden and will also be in game 2 of their own QB experiment with Carson Palmer. I see this being a close game with Tebow doing just enough to give himself another week of ridiculous QB scrambles.

Cincinnati at Tennessee -3 (line is -3 everywhere except Pinnacle where it’s -1.5)

Pick: Bengals +3, who could have predicted the Bengals would have 5 wins at this point in the season? This a big game for both teams as both will want to keep pace with their respective division leaders. I give the edge to the Bengals because of their stout defence. Chris Johnson has showed little this season and with no running game the Titans will be forced to move the chains via the air which will be tough against a physical Bengals secondary. I see a close defensive battle in this one with the Bengals pulling out an improbable 6th win of the season.

NYG at New England -9 (line has not moved)

Pick: Giants +9, I still think the Pats will win this game, but I see the game being closer than the number suggests. The Pats defence will have big time problems against Eli and his assortment of big play receivers (although it looks like my fantasy team’s best receiver Hakeem Nicks is out for this one). The Giants defence isn’t all that exciting either and thus it’s shaping up to be shootout…last score wins :)

St. Louis at Arizona -2.5 (line opened at -3.5)

Pick: Rams +2.5, this could be an ugly affair with the game shaping up to be a battle of the back-ups AJ Feeley vs. John Skelton. This is a flat out guess by the way…both teams are just as mediocre as the other so your guess is as good as mine.

Green Bay -5.5 at San Diego (Line opened at -6)

Pick: Packers -5.5, my initial pick was the Chargers, but I changed my mine because I just can’t trust Philip Rivers right now. That was an unbelievable loss by the Chargers last week where a botched snap by Rivers lead to a later OT win by the Chiefs. Typically I would back the team who came off an embarrassment such as last week, but in this case I’m not confident that the Chargers have that resolve this year. I think the Pack continue their dominating ways and the Chargers continue their slide down the AFC West.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh -3 (line opened at -3.5)

Pick: Steelers -3, the game of the week without a doubt. The Steelers will be looking for revenge against their bitter enemies who utterly destroyed them 35-7 in their last matchup. This time it’s in Steeltown and the Steelers will be hungry for revenge against a Ravens team that hasn’t looked all that sharp in their last 2. Pittsburgh has been dominant at home with a 4-0 record while the Ravens only win on the road this year came against the lowly Rams. Should be a great game to watch.

Chicago at Philadelphia -7.5 (line opened at -8)

Pick: Eagles -7.5, the Eagles have started to look like the team everyone expected them to be. Both teams are on 2 game winning streaks, but I don’t like the matchup of Cutler vs. the Philly pass defence. Cutler is a top end talent, but his receivers are not. He likely will not have enough time to find the open man as the Eagles pass rush is fierce. I still think the Eagles win the NFC East and they roll at home on Monday night.

I may be setting myself up for a ton of embarrassment, but I am including a new segment to the weekly picks called Wifey’s Randoms. The wife has made her selections this week based on the names of the teams she thought were the coolest. She has never watched a football game in her life…if her picks beat mine I may light my computer on fire…

Colts +7.5

Bills -3

Browns +10.5

Dolphins +4

49ers -4

Bucs +9

Cowboys -11

Raiders -7

Bengals +3

Giants +9

Cardinals -2.5

Chargers +5.5

Ravens +3

Bears +7.5

Actually, looking at her picks…I might just like them more than mine…kind of scared now.

 

 

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October 29, 2011

Week 8 NFL Picks: Halloween Edition

By nalstradamus

Last Week: 7-6

Season: 50-47-5

Halloween is my 2nd favourite day of the year, next to Christmas of course. Halloween is on Monday this year, but the majority of the parties will be occurring today. This means most of you will likely miss the early games due to unbearable hangovers. The wife is sick and is trying hard to pass on her illness to me so I don’t think we’ll be able to last very long at all. Anyway, enjoy your shenanigans wherever they are and feel free to blast my picks below.

Jacksonville at Houston -10

Pick: Texans -10, this line is going up and up and up. Jacksonville is coming off a huge upset win against the Ravens last week and the Texans are coming off a huge win against the Titans. Andre Johnson is also back in this game and I see another monster game from the Texans at home in this one.

Arizona at Baltimore -13

Pick: Ravens -13, give me some more chalk baby! The Ravens have to be angry after Monday night’s stinker. Arizona’s defence can’t seem to stop anybody and I think Ray Rice tears them apart. I hope you don’t have Kevin Kolb as your fantasy starter because he is going to get pressured hard all game long.

New Orleans -14 at St. Louis

Pick: Saints -14, I really don’t like this pick, but it doesn’t look like the Rams can cover any number this year. This pick is scary because the Saints are coming off a video game score beat down against the Colts and there has to be some kind of let down after that. However, the Rams just cannot stop anyone and they can’t score even with teams taking their feet off the gas pedal. I wish I had someone on the Saints for fantasy this week.

Miami at NYG -10.5

Pick: Dolphins +10.5, huge spreads this week. Miami hasn’t been playing all that bad the last few weeks and it’s tough to trust the on and off Giants. Ill take the desperate winless team in this one.

Indianapolis at Tennessee -10

Pick: Colts +10, losing 62-7 is ridiculous. Can the Colts bounce back from that loss? I say yes, but they will have to stop the run if they are going to keep this close. Chris Johnson might finally have a huge breakout game this week. There must be some pride in that Colts locker room…right?

Minnesota at Carolina -3

Pick: Panthers -3, battle of rookie QB’s in this one. Ponder looked pretty solid last week for the Vikes and we already know how good Cam Newton has been this season. A tough one to call, but I’ll give it to the home team. Only thing that scares me is AP vs the league’s 29th ranked rushing defence. Yikes…can I change my pick? Forget it, lets just roll with it.

Washington at Buffalo -4.5

Pick: Bills -4.5, this line was 6.5 so the public is on the Redskins in this one. Kind of strange in my opinion, the Bills have been solid all year and the ‘Skins have been struggling. The ‘Skins are a good pass rushing team so I see the Bills feeding Fred Jackson early and often. The Bills will have to stop the ‘Skins power running game, but I don’t have much faith in John Beck and the ‘Skins passing attack sans Santana Moss.

Detroit -3 at Denver

Pick: Broncos +3, I’m all over this Tebow bandwagon. I think I can throw the football better than him, but he seems to be able to pull wins out of nowhere. Looks like Matthew Stafford will be giving it a go, but I think Tebow pulls out another ridiculous 4th quarter comeback for the upset win.

New England -2 at Pittsburgh

Pick: Patriots -2, the game of the week by far. This is shaping up to be an aerial bombathon. The Pats secondary is swiss cheese and the Steelers D is still stout against the run. I’ll take Brady and Belichick coming off a bye almost every time.

Cleveland at San Francisco -8.5

Pick: 49′ers -8.5, the Browns’ passing game is non-existent and running room will be hard to come by against the 49′ers. The Browns barely squeaked by an awful Seahawks team last week and now are facing a much superior team this week. This could get ugly.

Cincinnati -1 at Seattle

Pick: Bengals -1, worst game of the week by far. I have no reason for this pick other than a pure guess.

Dallas at Philadelphia -3

Pick: Eagles -3, Andy Reid and the Eagles are 12-0 all-time after a bye week. The Eagles are slowly coming together and looking like the team everyone expected. Same can be said of the Cowboys. A huge rivalry game, will be fun to watch DeMarcus Ware chase Mike Vick all game long.

San Diego -3 at Kansas City

Pick: Chiefs +3, amazingly this game actually means something. It wasn’t looking pretty for the chiefs just a few weeks ago, but they have somehow turned it all around and have reeled off 3 straight wins. The Chargers are a frustrating team, world beaters one week and miserable another. Arrowhead is still a tough place to play for road teams and I think we may see the Chiefs shock the world and move into a first place tie with the Chargers after a Monday night upset.

Ok, it’s time for me to start getting my costume ready. So have fun tonight and get that Advil and Gatorade ready.

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