Last week: 6-6-1
Listen to the gut
Last week was tough, monster double digit lines filled the board. 4 out of the 5 double digit dawgs covered last week with the Rams producing the shock of the week beating the Saints. This week the lines are a bit tighter with the week highlighted by two marquee match ups in the Jets vs Bills and Ravens vs Steelers. I’ve been over thinking things the last few weeks, so this week it’s all about gut…scary! I’m also going to introduce a fun segment at the end of this weeks post. Onto the picks…
Atlanta -7.5 at Indy (line opened at -9)
Pick: Colts +7.5, I would have liked to have the extra 1.5 points, but oh well. Yes, I understand the Colts are tied for the Andrew Luck championship of the world, but I just can’t back the Falcons on the road with that awful defence. Even the ugliest of dawgs have their day, just look at the Rams last week. In all honesty, I would just plain out avoid this game.
NYJ at Bills -3 (line opened at -1)
Pick: Jets +3, it seems obvious to pick the Bills in this spot, they are 4-0 at home while the Jets are 0-3 on the road. However, I say forget all logic and look at these facts. The Bills are still an average to below average defence, especially against the run. The Jets specialty is stubbornly still ground and pound and I see them being able to eat up clock all day tomorrow. Ryan Fitzpatrick may have his least productive game of the season tomorrow going against a top tier passing defence and Revis island. Fred Jackson will need to be a monster for the Bills in order to pull this one out. I see the Jets ground game and defence pulling this one out for them tomorrow.
Cleveland at Houston -10.5 (line has not moved at most places)
Pick: Browns +10.5, I’m not even going to try to BS this one…this is pure guessing. I wouldn’t bet this game personally.
Miami at KC -4 (line opened at -5)
Pick: Chiefs -4, after a terrible o-3 start the Chiefs have somehow overcome devastating injuries on both sides of the ball to win 4 straight. The Dolphins are winless and are my choice to win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. The Dolphins have been playing well the last few weeks, especially Reggie Bush who had his first 100 yard rushing game last week since 2006. However, I don’t see the ‘fins having enough against one of the hottest teams in the AFC, in one of the tougher road venues in the league.
San Francisco -4 at Washington (line opened at -3.5)
Pick: 49ers -4, this pick seems to easy just like the Bills game. However, the Redskins are not the Jets. The ‘skins are also banged up on offence and may now be without their only real offensive threat in Fred Davis. The 49ers are an ATS machine this year, covering the spread in 6 out of 7 games this year with the lone non-cover being a push. The ‘skins on the other hand have failed to cover the spread in 3 consecutive games. I don’t see this one being close at all…the 49ers have the edge on offence, defence and even kicking…good night.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans -9 (line opened at same number)
Pick: Bucs +9, this is a scary pick because the Saints are coming off a humiliating loss to the Rams last week and this is also a revenge game as the Bucs beat the Saints in Tampa just a couple weeks ago. The Saints will come out flying in this one, but I think the Bucs will be able to hold their own and I think they have a good chance for the outright win. LaGarrette Blount should be back for the Bucs and this should give more balance to the offence and help milk some clock to keep the aerial attack of the Saints off the field.
Seattle at Dallas -11 (line opened at -14)
Pick: Cowboys -11, I don’t really like backing a Romo lead offence when the line is double digits, but I don’t see the alternative being all that exciting. The ‘Boys were spanked by the Eagles last week and will be hungry to put that loss behind them. The Seahawks have had 2 straight horrible games, although it can be mainly blamed on the Whitehurst experience. The Dallas aerial explosion will be too much for the Hawks to keep up with and this one will likely be a comfy win for the ‘Boys at home.
Denver at Oakland -7 (line opened at -8.5)
Pick: Broncos +7, the Raiders have dominated this matchup recently winning 4 straight against their arch rivals. The Broncos and Tim Tebow were thoroughly annihilated in their last game against the Lions. This could be the last episode of the Tebow experiment and because of this, I see his best effort yet coming tomorrow. The Raiders will be without their star running back McFadden and will also be in game 2 of their own QB experiment with Carson Palmer. I see this being a close game with Tebow doing just enough to give himself another week of ridiculous QB scrambles.
Cincinnati at Tennessee -3 (line is -3 everywhere except Pinnacle where it’s -1.5)
Pick: Bengals +3, who could have predicted the Bengals would have 5 wins at this point in the season? This a big game for both teams as both will want to keep pace with their respective division leaders. I give the edge to the Bengals because of their stout defence. Chris Johnson has showed little this season and with no running game the Titans will be forced to move the chains via the air which will be tough against a physical Bengals secondary. I see a close defensive battle in this one with the Bengals pulling out an improbable 6th win of the season.
NYG at New England -9 (line has not moved)
Pick: Giants +9, I still think the Pats will win this game, but I see the game being closer than the number suggests. The Pats defence will have big time problems against Eli and his assortment of big play receivers (although it looks like my fantasy team’s best receiver Hakeem Nicks is out for this one). The Giants defence isn’t all that exciting either and thus it’s shaping up to be shootout…last score wins
St. Louis at Arizona -2.5 (line opened at -3.5)
Pick: Rams +2.5, this could be an ugly affair with the game shaping up to be a battle of the back-ups AJ Feeley vs. John Skelton. This is a flat out guess by the way…both teams are just as mediocre as the other so your guess is as good as mine.
Green Bay -5.5 at San Diego (Line opened at -6)
Pick: Packers -5.5, my initial pick was the Chargers, but I changed my mine because I just can’t trust Philip Rivers right now. That was an unbelievable loss by the Chargers last week where a botched snap by Rivers lead to a later OT win by the Chiefs. Typically I would back the team who came off an embarrassment such as last week, but in this case I’m not confident that the Chargers have that resolve this year. I think the Pack continue their dominating ways and the Chargers continue their slide down the AFC West.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh -3 (line opened at -3.5)
Pick: Steelers -3, the game of the week without a doubt. The Steelers will be looking for revenge against their bitter enemies who utterly destroyed them 35-7 in their last matchup. This time it’s in Steeltown and the Steelers will be hungry for revenge against a Ravens team that hasn’t looked all that sharp in their last 2. Pittsburgh has been dominant at home with a 4-0 record while the Ravens only win on the road this year came against the lowly Rams. Should be a great game to watch.
Chicago at Philadelphia -7.5 (line opened at -8)
Pick: Eagles -7.5, the Eagles have started to look like the team everyone expected them to be. Both teams are on 2 game winning streaks, but I don’t like the matchup of Cutler vs. the Philly pass defence. Cutler is a top end talent, but his receivers are not. He likely will not have enough time to find the open man as the Eagles pass rush is fierce. I still think the Eagles win the NFC East and they roll at home on Monday night.
I may be setting myself up for a ton of embarrassment, but I am including a new segment to the weekly picks called Wifey’s Randoms. The wife has made her selections this week based on the names of the teams she thought were the coolest. She has never watched a football game in her life…if her picks beat mine I may light my computer on fire…
Actually, looking at her picks…I might just like them more than mine…kind of scared now.